Trump 2020

川普2020

Donald Trump launches a familiar-sounding re-election campaign

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)發(fā)起了一場耳熟能詳?shù)倪B任競選

Identity politics, with a focus on guns, crime and immigration, is likely to dominate

以槍支、犯罪和移民為重點的認同政治很可能占據(jù)主導(dǎo)議題

TO DESCRIBE THE event President Donald Trump held in Orlando’s Amway Centre on June 18th as his re-election campaign launch does not do justice to its strangeness. It would also be only narrowly true, because he has never stopped campaigning. Since filing his re-election papers over two years ago, on the day he took office, Mr Trump has held over 50 “MAGA rallies” across the country, revelling in the adulation of his devoted fans. This week’s event, in the crowded, but not completely full, home of the Orlando Magic basketball team, was merely an extravagant example.

6月18日，美國總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普在奧蘭多的安利中心舉辦了一場活動，稱其為自己的連任競選活動，但這一活動的怪異之處并不合理。但他說是就是吧，因為他從未停止過競選活動。自兩年前特朗普上任之日提交競選連任文件以來，他已在美國各地舉行了50多次“MAGA集會”，陶醉于他忠實粉絲的奉承。本周在奧蘭多魔術(shù)籃球隊(Orlando Magic basketball team)主場舉行的活動雖然擁擠，但并不完全座無虛席，這只是一個奢侈的例子。

詞匯

Adulation/奉承；諂媚

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As always, Mr Trump opened with a shout-out to the independent witnesses to his pending performance, “the fake news”. (Outside the arena, a Trump supporter would shortly become the first of the new campaign to be arrested for attacking a journalist.) The president then launched into the improbable balancing act—extreme triumphalism mingled with extreme grievance—that represents both his state of mind and his political method.

和往常一樣，特朗普一開始就向獨立證人大聲疾呼自己即將上演的“假新聞”(the fake news)。(在舞臺外，一名特朗普的支持者不久將成為新競選團隊中因襲擊記者而被捕的第一人。)隨后，總統(tǒng)開始了一種不可思議的平衡舉措——極端的必勝主義與極端的不滿交織在一起——這既代表了他的思想狀態(tài)，也代表了他的政治方法。

詞匯

Pending/未決定的；行將發(fā)生的

Improbable/不大可能的，未必確實的

Triumphalism/必勝信念；必勝心態(tài)

Mingle/交織；混合

Grievance/不滿，不平

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He claimed to have “accomplished more than any other president” in his first two and a half years. Much of what he offered in support of that claim was dubious. He exaggerated how much border wall he is building to keep Mexicans out; he falsely represented the size of the tax cuts he signed; he repeated his mischaracterisation of tariffs as a cost on Chinese exporters, not American consumers, and so on.

他聲稱，在他上任的頭兩年半里，他取得了“比任何一位總統(tǒng)都要多的成就”。他為支持這一主張所提供的許多東西都是可疑的。他夸大了他正在修建多少邊境墻來阻止墨西哥人進入;他錯誤地陳述了他簽署的減稅措施的規(guī)模;他重復(fù)了他的錯誤描述，即關(guān)稅是中國出口商的成本，而不是美國消費者的成本，等等。

詞匯

Dubious/可疑的；無把握的

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He claimed to have meanwhile been labouring “under circumstances that no president has had to deal with before…the great and illegal witch-hunt”. The Mueller investigation unearthed a lot of evidence of malfeasance by the president. Yet far from being hounded, he has in fact faced remarkably little comeuppance. His Democratic opponents are averse to taking up articles of impeachment, as previous opposition politicians might have done.

與此同時，他聲稱自己一直在“前所未有的情況下努力……進行大規(guī)模非法的政治迫害”。穆勒的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)了大量總統(tǒng)瀆職的證據(jù)。然而，他非但沒有受到追捕，實際上幾乎沒有受到什么懲罰。他的民主黨對手不愿接受彈劾條款，就像以前的反對黨政客可能會做的那樣。

詞匯

witch-hunt/政治迫害

malfeasance/瀆職，違法行為

hound/追捕

comeuppance/因果報應(yīng)，應(yīng)得的懲罰

impeachment/彈劾；控告

Mr Trump did not thank them for their restraint. “Our radical Democrat opponents are driven by hatred, prejudice and rage,” he cried. “They want to destroy you and they want to destroy our country.” To be pro-Trump is to be a patriot, to oppose him treason. It was nearly an hour into his prepared speech before he turned to the economy, including growth of 3% in the first quarter, rising wages and the lowest unemployment rate for half a century.

特朗普沒有感謝他們的約束。“我們的激進民主黨對手被仇恨、偏見和憤怒所驅(qū)使，”他痛斥道，“他們想摧毀你們，他們想摧毀我們的國家?！爸С痔乩势站褪菒蹏?，反對他即為叛國賊。在他準備好的演講進行了將近一個小時后，他轉(zhuǎn)向了經(jīng)濟問題，包括第一季度3%的經(jīng)濟增長率、不斷上漲的工資和半個世紀以來最低的失業(yè)率。

詞匯

Hatred/ ?憎恨；怨恨；敵意

Patriot/愛國者

Treason/逆反；叛國

It may contravene James Carville’s maxim, but Mr Trump’s re-election campaign is not primarily about the economy. That is partly a reflection of his character, because his sense of grievance swamps his feelings of triumph. But it is also tactical. The idea that elections are decided by the state of the economy rests on an assumption that there is a critical mass of swing voters, persuadable by either side. And that mass had been dwindling for years, owing to partisanship, even before Mr Trump’s extreme divisiveness accelerated its demise. Only 51% of Americans approve of his performance on the economy, despite its rude health—and the economy is easily his strongest measure. His overall approval rating has rarely reached 46%, the share of the popular vote he won in 2016; it is now a couple of points below that. He is the only president never to have reached 50% since Gallup began polling on the issue.

這可能違背了詹姆斯?卡維爾(James Carville)的格言，但特朗普的連任競選主要與經(jīng)濟無關(guān)。這在一定程度上反映了他的性格，因為他的委屈感淹沒了他的勝利感。但這也是一種戰(zhàn)術(shù)。選舉由經(jīng)濟狀況決定的觀點基于這樣一種假設(shè)，即存在大量關(guān)鍵的拿捏不定的選民，任何一方都能說服他們。而且，由于黨派之爭，這一群體多年來一直在減少，甚至在特朗普的極端分裂政策加速了這一群體的消亡之前（已經(jīng)在大量減少）。只有51%的美國人支持他在經(jīng)濟上的表現(xiàn)，盡管美國的狀況在衰落——而經(jīng)濟發(fā)展無疑是他最有力的競選論證。他的總體支持率很少達到46%，這是他在2016年贏得的普選份額;現(xiàn)在比這低了幾個點。自蓋洛普民意調(diào)查開始以來，他是唯一一位支持率從未達到50%的總統(tǒng)。

詞匯

Tactical/戰(zhàn)術(shù)的；策略的

Dwindling/減少，變小

These poor numbers make it hard to see Mr Trump winning any state he lost in 2016. To win again he must therefore walk the same path to an electoral college majority he trod that year—through Florida, Ohio and a trio of formerly Democratic rustbelt states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The fact that all have lots of older white people, his most reliable constituency, is why he remains competitive, despite his low ratings. Yet he has a major worry. While Florida and Ohio are becoming more Republican, the more northerly states appear to be reverting to the Democrats. And they are doing so, results in the mid-terms suggested, because the working-class voters Mr Trump recruited from the left in 2016 are cooling on him.

這些糟糕的數(shù)字使得特朗普很難贏得他在2016年失去的任何一個州。因此，為了再次獲勝，他必須走他當年走過的那條路，即通過佛羅里達州、俄亥俄州以及密歇根州、賓夕法尼亞州和威斯康星州這三個前民主黨“銹帶（衰退地帶）”州，贏得選舉團的多數(shù)席位。盡管他的支持率很低，但所有這些州都有很多年長的白人選民，這是他最可靠的支持者，這也是他保持競爭力的原因。然而，他有一個主要的擔(dān)憂。雖然佛羅里達州和俄亥俄州越來越傾向于共和黨，但更北部的州似乎正在回歸民主黨。中期選舉結(jié)果顯示，他們正在這么做，因為特朗普在2016年從左翼招募的工人階級選民對他的態(tài)度正在降溫。

詞匯

tread/踩，踐踏；行走【過去式 trod過去分詞 trodden 或 trod現(xiàn)在分詞 treading】

Four years ago he wooed them with a combination of paternalistic economic promises and white identity politics. Only the second of these may now be available to him. Having failed to provide universal free health care, bring back coal-mining and regenerate long-shuttered factory towns, among other unlikely pledges, he is now struggling to repeat them. (Mr Trump’s recent vow to unveil a new health-care plan “in about two months” carried a hint of desperation.)

四年前，他以家長式的經(jīng)濟承諾和白人身份政治相結(jié)合的方式向他們示好?，F(xiàn)在，他可能只有第二種選擇。在未能提供 全民免費醫(yī)療、恢復(fù)煤炭開采、重建長期關(guān)閉的工業(yè)城鎮(zhèn)等不太可能的承諾之后，他現(xiàn)在正努力重復(fù)這些承諾。(特朗普最近誓言“大約兩個月后”公布一項新的醫(yī)療保健計劃，帶有一絲絕望的意味。)

詞匯

Woo/求愛；懇求

Paternalistic/家長式作風(fēng)的

coal-mining/挖煤；采礦業(yè)

Mr Trump may yet find a way to fill this void. A trade deal with China or a cut in illegal immigration could help. Yet it is likely that identity politics, in the form of fierce rhetoric on guns, crime and immigration, will dominate his campaign. Mr Trump warmed up for his appearance in Orlando by vowing to round up “millions of illegal aliens”—starting “next week”. He also refused to retract his demand for five black teenagers convicted of assaulting and raping a jogger in Central Park to be executed—though they were exonerated by DNA evidence and freed 17 years ago. Outside the Amway Centre a white chauvinist crew called the Proud Boys flashed “white power” signs at reporters.

特朗普或許還會找到填補這一空白的方法。與中國達成貿(mào)易協(xié)議或減少非法移民可能會有所幫助。然而，身份政治——以槍支、犯罪和移民問題上的激烈言辭——很可能將主導(dǎo)他的競選。特朗普為自己在奧蘭多的亮相做了熱身，他發(fā)誓要從“下周”開始逮捕“數(shù)百萬非法移民”。他還拒絕撤銷對五名在中央公園襲擊和強奸慢跑者的黑人青少年執(zhí)行死刑的要求——盡管他們被DNA證據(jù)證明無罪，并在17年前獲釋。在安利中心外，一群白人沙文主義者向記者高舉“白人力量”的標語，他們被稱為“驕傲的男孩”。

Though these are early days, in short, it seems highly probable that Mr Trump will re-run his previous campaign. To hear him, it seems to be 2016 still. He persists in whipping up his supporters with denunciations of Hillary Clinton (“Lock her up!” they screamed in Orlando). By far the biggest uncertainty, perhaps the only one, therefore concerns who the Democrats send out to face him in her stead.

簡而言之，盡管現(xiàn)在還處于早期階段，但特朗普很有可能會再次競選。聽他說，現(xiàn)在似乎還是2016年。他堅持用對希拉里·克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的譴責(zé)(“把她關(guān)起來!”他們在奧蘭多尖叫)。到目前為止，最大的不確定性，也許是唯一的不確定性，是民主黨派誰去代替她面對他。

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Betting markets put his chances of re-election at 50%, which reflects uncertainty about who the Democrats will pick. Though incumbency gives him a boost, absent some game-changing event Mr Trump would struggle against a strong opponent. His hopes may depend on the Democrats putting forward another dud, too weak or compromised to survive his attacks. Do not put it past them.

博彩市場認為他再次當選的幾率為50%，這反映出民主黨人會選擇誰的不確定性。盡管在任給了他提振，但如果沒有一些改變游戲規(guī)則的事件，特朗普將很難對付強大的對手。他的希望可能依賴于民主黨提出的另一個無用方案，太過軟弱或妥協(xié)，無法在他的攻擊中存活下來。但可千萬別小瞧民主黨。