【中英】經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人|美元可能會(huì)給投資者帶來一個(gè)討厭的驚喜
Virtually everyone thinks the greenback will weaken
Our currency, your problem. That is how John Connally, America’s Treasury secretary, described the dollar to European leaders in 1971. The phrasing was apt. His boss, Richard Nixon, had suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold and demanded a change to the exchange-rate system established at Bretton Woods in 1944. Other countries were told to strengthen their currencies, or America would subject them to trade restrictions. Compliance followed in short order. By the end of the year, the Smithsonian Agreement had devalued the dollar by around a tenth against key foreign currencies.
我們的貨幣，你們的問題。這是美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)約翰-康納利在1971年對(duì)歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人描述美元的方式。這個(gè)措辭很貼切。他的老板理查德-尼克松中止了美元與黃金的可兌換性，并要求改變1944年在布雷頓森林建立的匯率制度。其他國(guó)家被告知要加強(qiáng)他們的貨幣，否則美國(guó)將對(duì)他們進(jìn)行貿(mào)易限制。在很短的時(shí)間內(nèi)，各國(guó)紛紛遵守。到該年年底，史密森協(xié)議使美元對(duì)主要外國(guó)貨幣貶值了約十分之一。
is prompting sighs of relief. Last September the dxy, a gauge of the dollar’s strength against other currencies, was at its highest in 20 years. The yen had tumbled; the pound at one point looked like it was racing towards parity with the dollar; the euro spent a few brief spells below it. Since then, the greenback has weakened: measured by the dxy, it is now 10% below its recent peak.
今天的匯率大多是浮動(dòng)的，由市場(chǎng)而不是在緊鑼密鼓的會(huì)談中確定。然而，美元走弱再次引發(fā)了人們的嘆息。去年9月，衡量美元對(duì)其他貨幣強(qiáng)度的Dxy指數(shù)達(dá)到了20年來的最高值。日元下跌；英鎊一度看起來正朝著與美元平價(jià)的方向發(fā)展；歐元也曾短暫地低于美元。從那時(shí)起，美元就開始走弱了：以dxy指數(shù)衡量，它現(xiàn)在比最近的峰值低10%。
A mighty dollar causes no end of problems. Poorer countries tend to borrow in the currency. When it strengthens, these debts become heftier. Even in rich countries, where governments mostly issue debt in their own currency, a stronger dollar squeezes corporate borrowers. Analysis in 2020 by Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman and Jesse Schreger, three economists, showed that in Australia, Canada and New Zealand more than 90% of corporate bonds held by foreigners were denominated in outside currencies, typically dollars.
一個(gè)強(qiáng)大的美元會(huì)帶來無窮的問題。較貧窮的國(guó)家傾向于用美元借款。當(dāng)美元走強(qiáng)時(shí)，這些債務(wù)變得更加沉重。即使在富國(guó)，政府大多以自己的貨幣發(fā)行債務(wù)，美元走強(qiáng)也會(huì)擠壓企業(yè)借款人。三位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Matteo Maggiori、Brent Neiman和Jesse Schreger在2020年的分析顯示，在澳大利亞、加拿大和新西蘭，外國(guó)人持有的公司債券有90%以上是以境外貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的，通常是美元。
It is not only debtors that suffer. Commodity prices are quoted in dollars; when the currency strengthens they get dearer. American exporters become less competitive, as their products are more expensive for foreigners. American investors with overseas assets have their returns eaten away. Good reason, then, for the cheering at the greenback’s retreat.
受影響的不僅是債務(wù)人。商品價(jià)格是以美元報(bào)價(jià)的；當(dāng)貨幣升值時(shí)，它們會(huì)變得更貴。美國(guó)的出口商變得缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，因?yàn)樗麄兊漠a(chǎn)品對(duì)外國(guó)人來說更加昂貴。擁有海外資產(chǎn)的美國(guó)投資者的收益被蠶食。因此，有充分的理由對(duì)美元的回撤表示歡呼。
Unfortunately, the relief may be temporary. To see why, consider the sources of the dollar’s recent strength. One is monetary policy. Throughout 2022, America’s Federal Reserve raised rates higher and faster than other central banks. This made the dollar a good target for a “carry trade”: selling a low-yielding currency to buy a high-yielding one and pocketing the difference. A second source is fear. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the teetering of the global economy towards recession all ratcheted up markets’ anxiety levels. In anxious times investors tend to reach for the perceived safety of American assets. A final source is America’s economy. In part because of higher energy prices and the country’s status as an energy exporter, it seems in better shape than much of the rest of the world’s.
不幸的是，這種緩解可能是暫時(shí)的。要知道為什么，考慮一下美元最近的強(qiáng)勢(shì)來源。一個(gè)是貨幣政策。在整個(gè)2022年，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備局比其他央行更高更快地提高利率。這使得美元成為 “套利交易 “的良好目標(biāo)：賣出低收益貨幣，買入高收益貨幣，并將差額收入囊中。第二個(gè)來源是恐懼。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)走向衰退的搖擺不定，都加劇了市場(chǎng)的焦慮水平。在焦慮的時(shí)候，投資者往往會(huì)去尋找被認(rèn)為安全的美國(guó)資產(chǎn)。最后一個(gè)來源是美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)。部分原因是能源價(jià)格上漲和美國(guó)作為能源出口國(guó)的地位，它似乎比世界其他國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況更好。
True, the pace of the Fed’s tightening is slowing, and its governors expect rates to peak this year. But they expect that peak to be higher than investors do, at above 5%, and that it will be maintained longer before being cut. Were the market to accept the central bank’s view, the carry trade might yet have another leg. So may the fear trade, which is dependent on the progress of an unpredictable war.
的確，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的緊縮步伐正在放緩，其理事們預(yù)計(jì)利率將在今年達(dá)到峰值。但他們預(yù)計(jì)這一峰值將高于投資者的預(yù)期，即超過5%，而且在降息之前將維持更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。如果市場(chǎng)接受央行的觀點(diǎn)，套利交易可能還會(huì)有新的進(jìn)展?？謶纸灰滓彩侨绱耍Q于一場(chǎng)不可預(yù)測(cè)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的進(jìn)展。
Even an American recession may not dent the dollar. The greenback tends to do well both when America’s economy is motoring ahead and when it falls into a downturn, a phenomenon currency traders call the “dollar smile”. If American growth is sputtering（to make several quick explosive sounds；（使）發(fā)出噼啪聲）, the global economy is likely to be in jeopardy as well, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets as havens.
即使是美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退也可能不會(huì)影響到美元。當(dāng)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)向前發(fā)展和陷入衰退時(shí)，美元往往表現(xiàn)良好，這種現(xiàn)象被貨幣交易商稱為 “美元微笑”。如果美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)也可能陷入困境，從而增強(qiáng)了美元資產(chǎn)作為避風(fēng)港的吸引力。
Yet the best argument that the dollar will strengthen is investors’ conviction that it won’t. In Bank of America’s recent survey of fund managers, a near-record proportion thought that the greenback would weaken. Among forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, a data provider, the median projection is for the dollar to fall against every other major currency this year, and to continue to drop after that.
然而，美元將走強(qiáng)的最佳論據(jù)是投資者對(duì)其不會(huì)走強(qiáng)的信念。在美國(guó)銀行最近對(duì)基金經(jīng)理的調(diào)查中，有近乎創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的比例認(rèn)為美元會(huì)走弱。在數(shù)據(jù)提供商彭博社調(diào)查的預(yù)測(cè)者中，預(yù)測(cè)的中值是今年美元對(duì)其他所有主要貨幣都將下跌，之后將繼續(xù)下跌。
With some $6.6trn traded against other currencies every day, it is difficult to imagine that at least some of these bets have not already been placed. The more that have, the greater the potential for a rise. Shortly after the Smithsonian Agreement was struck, speculators threw currency markets back into chaos by forcing the dollar to devalue further, eventually breaking the Bretton Woods system altogether. Nowadays, the greatest pain would come if the dollar were driven in the opposite direction. Investors could be in for a shock.
