Monkeypox isn’t covid-19. Since May the viral disease has infected 35,000 people in 92 countries, less than one-tenth as many as covid infects in a day. Though symptoms, including fever, headaches, muscle aches and a pus-filled rash, can be nasty, it seldom causes death. Critically, in contrast to covid, both a vaccine and a treatment predate the current epidemic. Their makers, two smallish drug companies, are struggling to keep up with demand.?

猴痘不是新冠。自5月以來(lái)，這種病毒性疾病已經(jīng)在92個(gè)國(guó)家感染了3.5萬(wàn)人，這一數(shù)字不到新冠肺炎一天感染人數(shù)的十分之一。其癥狀包括發(fā)燒、頭痛、肌肉疼痛和膿疹，這雖然令人難受，但猴痘很少導(dǎo)致死亡。關(guān)鍵是，與新冠相比，疫苗和治療都早于當(dāng)前的疫情。疫苗的制造商是兩家相當(dāng)小的制藥公司，他們正努力滿(mǎn)足需求。

The jab is made by Bavarian Nordic, a Danish firm founded in 1994 to commercialise a clever replacement, developed by a researcher in Bavaria, to the old smallpox vaccine (monkeypox and smallpox are related viruses). Before the latest outbreak, only six countries, including America, had ordered the drug. In the past four months that number has swelled to 70, and counting. “We were definitely not prepared for this,” admits its finance chief, Henrik Juuel. The firm is working around the clock to add capacity and expand its 800-strong workforce. Annual revenue is forecast to more than double this year, to $380m.?

這種疫苗是由Bavarian Nordic公司生產(chǎn)的，這是一家成立于1994年的丹麥公司，其目的是將巴伐利亞的一名研究人員開(kāi)發(fā)的一種替代舊天花疫苗(猴痘和天花是相關(guān)的病毒)商業(yè)化。在最近爆發(fā)之前，只有包括美國(guó)在內(nèi)的6個(gè)國(guó)家訂購(gòu)了該藥。在過(guò)去的四個(gè)月里，這個(gè)數(shù)字已經(jīng)膨脹到70個(gè)，而且還在增加。該公司的財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)Henrik Juuel承認(rèn):“我們尚未 為此做好準(zhǔn)備?！痹摴菊挂岳^日地增加產(chǎn)能，擴(kuò)大其800多名員工的規(guī)模。該公司今年的年收入預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)逾一倍，達(dá)到3.8億美元。

Success has brought in resources to finance its other bets. Bavarian Nordic has just begun a phase-three clinical trial of a vaccine against rsv, a flu-like virus that kills as many elderly and infants as influenza. At a cost of up to $300m, it is a “heavy investment”, says Mr Juuel; the firm expects to lose between $13m and $40m this year as a result. But the potential prize is large. No rsv jab exists and the global market for one could, analysts reckon, be as big as $5bn-10bn a year.?

成功為它的其他選擇帶來(lái)了資金。Bavarian Nordic公司剛剛開(kāi)始了針對(duì)rsv疫苗的三期臨床試驗(yàn)，rsv是一種類(lèi)似流感的病毒，與流感一樣會(huì)導(dǎo)致很多老人和嬰兒死亡。Juuel先生說(shuō)，其成本高達(dá)3億美元，這是一項(xiàng)“重大投資”；因此，該公司預(yù)計(jì)今年將虧損1300萬(wàn)至4000萬(wàn)美元。但其潛在的回報(bào)是巨大的。目前還不存在rsv疫苗，而分析師們估計(jì)，全球rsv疫苗的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模可能高達(dá)每年50億至100億美元。

Across the Atlantic siga Technologies hopes to emulate Bavarian Nordic. The self-styled maker of “human bioarmour” produces tpoxx, an oral capsule used to treat some symptoms of smallpox and some related viruses. From January to July siga shipped $60m-worth of tpoxx, which regulators in Britain and the eu have approved for use against monkeypox (as well as smallpox and cowpox), up from $10m in the same period last year. Orders could swell once America’s Food and Drug Administration follows suit; it accepted tpoxx for smallpox in 2018.?

大西洋彼岸siga Technologies公司希望效仿Bavarian Nordic公司。自稱(chēng)為“人類(lèi)生物盔甲”制造商的公司生產(chǎn)了TPOXX藥物，這是一種口服膠囊，用于治療天花和一些相關(guān)病毒的一些癥狀。從1月到7月，siga出口了價(jià)值6000萬(wàn)美元的tpoxx，英國(guó)和歐盟的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已批準(zhǔn)將其用于治療猴痘(以及天花和牛痘)，而去年同期為1000萬(wàn)美元。一旦美國(guó)食品和藥物管理局（FDA）批準(zhǔn)，其訂單可能會(huì)激增；FDA在2018年批準(zhǔn)其用于治療天花。

As monkeypox hit the headlines over the summer, investors piled in. The market value of Bavarian Nordic ballooned from $1.4bn in early May to nearly $4bn in August. siga’s soared four-fold, to almost $2bn. Both have fallen back since, by about two-fifths and a half, respectively, as concerns about the next pandemic receded. But they remain twice as valuable, more or less, as they were in the spring. Not so poxy anymore.

隨著猴痘成為今夏的頭條新聞，投資者蜂擁而至。Bavarian Nordic公司的市值從5月初的14億美元飆升至8月份的近40億美元。Siga股價(jià)飆升4倍，達(dá)到近20億美元。此后，隨著人們對(duì)下一次大流行的擔(dān)憂(yōu)消退，其市值分別下降了約五分之二和一半。但它們的市值仍然是春天時(shí)的兩倍，或多或少。不再那么沒(méi)有價(jià)值了。