The Economic journal 2023年第2期

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.Market Participation and Moral Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence from Greenland

市場參與與道德決策:來自格陵蘭島的實驗證據(jù)

Gustav Agneman,?Esther Chevrot-Bianco

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac069

The relationship between market participation and moral values is the object of a long-lasting debate in economics, yet field evidence is mainly based on cross-cultural studies. We conduct rule-breaking experiments in 13 villages across Greenland (N?= 543), where stark contrasts in market participation within villages allow us to examine the relationship between market participation and moral decision-making, holding village-level factors constant. First, we document a robust positive association between market participation and moral behaviour towards anonymous others. Second, market-integrated participants display universalism in moral decision-making, whereas non-market participants make more moral decisions towards co-villagers. A battery of robustness tests confirms that the behavioural differences between market and non-market participants are not driven by socioeconomic variables, childhood background, cultural identities, kinship structure, global connectedness and exposure to religious and political institutions.

市場參與與道德價值之間的關(guān)系是經(jīng)濟學(xué)長期爭論的對象，而現(xiàn)場證據(jù)主要基于跨文化研究。我們在格陵蘭島的13個村莊(N = 543)進(jìn)行了打破規(guī)則的實驗，在這些實驗中，村莊內(nèi)部的市場參與形成了鮮明的對比，使我們能夠在保持村級因素不變的情況下，考察市場參與和道德決策之間的關(guān)系。首先，我們證明了市場參與與對待匿名者的道德行為之間存在著穩(wěn)健的正相關(guān)關(guān)系。第二，市場整合參與者在道德決策上表現(xiàn)出普遍主義，而非市場參與者對同鄉(xiāng)的道德決策更多。一系列穩(wěn)健性檢驗證實，市場參與者和非市場參與者之間的行為差異不是由社會經(jīng)濟變量、童年背景、文化身份、親屬關(guān)系結(jié)構(gòu)、全球聯(lián)系以及對宗教和政治機構(gòu)的接觸所驅(qū)動的。

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2.Long-Term and Intergenerational Effects of Education: Evidence from School Construction in Indonesia

教育的長期和代際影響:來自印度尼西亞學(xué)校建設(shè)的證據(jù)

Richard Akresh,?Daniel Halim,?Marieke Kleemans

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac058

We study long-term and intergenerational effects of the 1970s Indonesian school construction program. Exploiting variation across birth cohorts and districts in the number of schools built suggests that 43 years later men are more likely to work formally, outside agriculture, and migrate, and that men and women have better marriage market outcomes. Households with exposed women have higher living standards and pay more taxes. The mother's program exposure leads to increased schooling for her children, with larger effects in secondary and tertiary education. Cost-benefit analyses indicate that school construction leads to higher tax revenues and improved living standards, offsetting construction costs within 18–54 years.

我們研究了20世紀(jì)70年代印尼學(xué)校建設(shè)項目的長期和代際影響。通過對不同出生人群和地區(qū)學(xué)校數(shù)量的差異進(jìn)行分析，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，43年后，男性更有可能在農(nóng)業(yè)以外的領(lǐng)域正式工作并移民，而且男性和女性在婚姻市場上會有更好的結(jié)果。女性暴露在外的家庭生活水平更高，納稅也更多。母親的項目曝光導(dǎo)致她的孩子接受更多的教育，對中學(xué)和大學(xué)教育有更大的影響。成本效益分析表明，學(xué)校建設(shè)帶來了更高的稅收收入和生活水平的提高，在18-54年內(nèi)抵消了建設(shè)成本。

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3.Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes

投資者情緒、主權(quán)債務(wù)錯誤定價和經(jīng)濟結(jié)果

Ramzy Al-Amine,?Tim Willems

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac067

We find that countries able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (e.g., because investors are bullish regarding the country’s future) are more likely to develop medium-term difficulties. We establish this by regressing spreads on fundamentals. Subsequently deploying first-stage residuals in a second-stage regression suggests that an optimistic sentiment reduces growth in the medium term while increasing odds of fiscal crises. Incorporating information from our mispricing estimate reduces the root-mean-square error of out-of-sample growth forecasts by 15%. This supports theories of sentiment affecting the business cycle and suggests that countries should not solely rely on spreads when setting fiscal policy.

我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在基本面(例如，因為投資者看好該國的未來)看來，能夠以較低利差借款的國家更有可能出現(xiàn)中期困難。我們通過回歸基本面利差來確定這一點。隨后在第二階段回歸中部署第一階段殘差表明，樂觀情緒降低了中期增長，同時增加了財政危機的可能性。結(jié)合錯誤定價估計的信息，樣本外增長預(yù)測的均方根誤差降低了15%。這支持了情緒影響商業(yè)周期的理論，并表明各國在制定財政政策時不應(yīng)僅僅依賴?yán)睢?/span>

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4.Finance and Green Growth

金融與綠色增長

Ralph De?Haas,?Alexander Popov

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac081

We study how countries’ financial structure affects their transition to low-carbon growth. Using global industry-level data, we document that carbon-intensive industries reduce emissions faster in economies with deeper stock markets. The main channel underpinning this stylised fact is that stock markets facilitate green innovation in carbon-intensive sectors, resulting in lower carbon emissions per unit of output. More tentative evidence indicates that stock markets also help to reallocate investment towards more energy-efficient sectors. Cross-border spillovers are limited: less than 5% of these industry-level reductions in domestic emissions are offset by carbon embedded in imports. A firm-level analysis of an exogenous shock to the cost of equity in Belgium confirms our findings.

我們研究了各國的金融結(jié)構(gòu)如何影響其向低碳增長轉(zhuǎn)型。利用全球行業(yè)層面的數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在股市更深的經(jīng)濟體中，碳密集型行業(yè)減少排放的速度更快。支撐這一程式化事實的主要渠道是，股市促進(jìn)了碳密集型行業(yè)的綠色創(chuàng)新，從而降低了單位產(chǎn)出的碳排放。更多的初步證據(jù)表明，股市也有助于將投資重新分配到更節(jié)能的部門。跨境溢出效應(yīng)是有限的:只有不到5%的行業(yè)層面的國內(nèi)排放減少被進(jìn)口中的碳抵消。對比利時股權(quán)成本的外生沖擊的公司層面分析證實了我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

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5.Technology-Neutral Versus Technology-Specific Procurement?

技術(shù)中性與技術(shù)特定采購

Natalia Fabra,?Juan-Pablo Montero

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac075

An imperfectly informed regulator needs to procure multiple units of some good (e.g., green energy, market liquidity, pollution reduction, land conservation) that can be produced with heterogeneous technologies at various costs. How should she optimally procure these units? Should she run technology-specific or technology-neutral auctions? Should she allow for partial separation across technologies? Should she instead post separate prices for each technology? What are the trade-offs involved? We find that one size does not fit all: the preferred instrument depends on the costs of the available technologies, their degree of substitutability, the extent of information asymmetry and the costs of public funds. We illustrate the use of our theory for policy analysis with an ex ante evaluation of Spain’s recent renewable auction.

一個不完全知情的監(jiān)管機構(gòu)需要采購多個單位的某種商品(如綠色能源、市場流動性、減少污染、保護(hù)土地)，這些商品可以用不同的技術(shù)以不同的成本生產(chǎn)。她應(yīng)該如何以最佳方式獲得這些單位?她應(yīng)該進(jìn)行技術(shù)特定的還是技術(shù)中立的拍賣?她應(yīng)該允許跨技術(shù)的部分分離嗎?她應(yīng)該為每種技術(shù)單獨公布價格嗎?其中涉及哪些權(quán)衡?我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，一種方法并不適用于所有的工具:首選工具取決于可用技術(shù)的成本、它們的可替代性程度、信息不對稱的程度和公共資金的成本。我們通過對西班牙最近的可再生能源拍賣的事前評估來說明我們的理論在政策分析中的使用。

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6.The Effects of Tax Changes on Economic Activity: A Narrative Approach to Frequent Anticipations

稅收變化對經(jīng)濟活動的影響:對頻繁預(yù)期的敘述方法

Sandra García-Uribe

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac064

This paper studies the effects of anticipations of tax changes on economic activity through the release of tax news in the media in the United States. I provide a measure of anticipations by exploiting the content of television news. This information typically flows faster than standard measures of gross domestic product, thus I propose a mixed frequency dynamic factor model to estimate both the economic activity latent factor and the effects of anticipated tax shocks on it. I find that one-month-ahead anticipations of tax cuts significantly stimulate current economic activity while those of tax increases produce the opposite effect.

本文通過美國媒體發(fā)布稅收消息，研究稅收變動預(yù)期對經(jīng)濟活動的影響。我通過利用電視新聞的內(nèi)容提供了一種預(yù)期的措施。這種信息通常比國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量方法流動得更快，因此我提出了一個混合頻率動態(tài)因素模型，以估計經(jīng)濟活動的潛在因素和預(yù)期稅收沖擊對其的影響。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，一個月前的減稅預(yù)期顯著刺激當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟活動，而增稅預(yù)期則產(chǎn)生相反的效果。

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7.Jumping the Gun: How Dictators Got Ahead of Their Subjects?

搶先行動:獨裁者如何超越他們的臣民

Jacob Gerner Hariri,?Asger Mose Wingender

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac073

Economic modernisation is widely seen as a path to democracy, but the technological progress that drives modernisation also provides rulers with new means of repression. We collect data on the international diffusion of 29 repressive military technologies, and demonstrate that such technologies spread faster from Western Europe and the United States than economic development. Moreover, in a panel of all independent countries in the period 1820–2010, we show that the rapid diffusion of repressive technologies has impeded democratisation around the world, by allowing autocratic rulers to suppress popular resistance against their regimes.

推動現(xiàn)代化的進(jìn)步也為統(tǒng)治者提供了新的鎮(zhèn)壓手段。我們收集了29種壓制性軍事技術(shù)在國際上傳播的數(shù)據(jù)，并證明這些技術(shù)從西歐和美國傳播的速度比經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的速度更快。此外，在對1820年至2010年期間所有獨立國家的調(diào)查中，我們展示了壓制性技術(shù)的迅速擴散阻礙了世界各地的民主化進(jìn)程，因為專制統(tǒng)治者得以壓制民眾對其政權(quán)的反抗。

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8.Strategic Complexity and the Value of Thinking

戰(zhàn)略的復(fù)雜性和思考的價值

David Gill,?Victoria Prowse

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac070

We leverage response-time data from repeated strategic interactions to measure the strategic complexity of a situation by how long people think on average when they face that situation (where we categorise situations according to characteristics of play in the previous round). We find that strategic complexity varies significantly across situations, and we find considerable heterogeneity in how responsive subjects’ thinking times are to complexity. We also study how variation in response times at the individual level affects success: when a subject thinks for longer than she would normally do in a particular situation, she wins less frequently and earns less.

我們利用來自反復(fù)戰(zhàn)略互動的反應(yīng)時間數(shù)據(jù)，通過人們在面對這種情況時平均思考多長時間來衡量這種情況的戰(zhàn)略復(fù)雜性(在這種情況下，我們根據(jù)前一輪的玩法特征對情況進(jìn)行分類)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，戰(zhàn)略復(fù)雜性在不同情況下有顯著差異，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在受試者對復(fù)雜性的反應(yīng)時間上，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了相當(dāng)大的異質(zhì)性。我們還研究了個體層面上反應(yīng)時間的變化如何影響成功:當(dāng)受試者在特定情況下比正常情況下思考的時間長時，她獲勝的頻率就會降低，賺的錢也會減少。

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9.Gone with the wind: The consequences of US drone strikes in Pakistan

《飄》:美國無人機襲擊巴基斯坦的后果

Rafat Mahmood,?Michael Jetter

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac049

Employing day-to-day wind conditions as an identification strategy, we explore the consequences of the 420 US drone strikes in Pakistan between 2006 and 2016. Results suggest that drone strikes encourage terrorism over the upcoming days and weeks, causing up to 19% of all terror attacks with more than 3,000 terror deaths in Pakistan during that period. Studying a leading Pakistani newspaper, we identify a polarised response to drone strikes as negative emotions and anger, but also positive emotions, in drone-related articles increase. Finally, anti-US protests and online searches exhibiting radical Islamist concepts increase as a consequence of drone strikes.

利用日常的風(fēng)力條件作為識別策略，我們探討了2006年至2016年期間在巴基斯坦進(jìn)行的420次美國無人機襲擊的后果。結(jié)果顯示，無人機襲擊在接下來的幾天和幾周內(nèi)助長了恐怖主義，造成了巴基斯坦所有恐怖襲擊的19%，超過3000人死于恐怖襲擊。通過研究巴基斯坦的一份主要報紙，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在與無人機有關(guān)的文章中，人們對無人機襲擊的兩極反應(yīng)是負(fù)面情緒和憤怒，但也有積極情緒。最后，無人機襲擊增加了反美抗議活動和顯示激進(jìn)伊斯蘭主義概念的在線搜索。

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10.Women Leaving the Playpen: the Emancipating Role of Female Suffrage?

婦女離開圍欄:婦女選舉權(quán)的解放作用

Michaela Slotwinski,?Alois Stutzer

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac077

We study how political empowerment affected women’s emancipation as reflected in their life choices. The staggered introduction of female suffrage in Swiss states allows us to exploit the variation in the age at which women were exposed to the right to vote to estimate the differences in life choices between women who were socialised in a world with politically empowered women and those who were socialised before. Our empirical findings document that early exposure to female suffrage increased female labour force participation, weakened marital bonds and motivated human capital investment.

我們研究政治賦權(quán)如何影響婦女解放，反映在她們的生活選擇中。瑞士各州女性選舉權(quán)的交錯引入使我們能夠利用女性獲得投票權(quán)的年齡差異，來估計在一個擁有政治權(quán)力的女性的世界里被社會化的女性與在此之前被社會化的女性在生活選擇上的差異。我們的實證結(jié)果證明，早期接觸女性投票權(quán)增加了女性勞動力參與率，削弱了婚姻紐帶，并激勵了人力資本投資。

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11.Clean Energy Access: Gender Disparity, Health and Labour Supply

清潔能源獲取:性別差距、健康和勞動力供應(yīng)

Anjali P Verma,?Imelda

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac057

Women bear a disproportionate share of the health and time burden associated with lack of access to modern energy. We study the impact of clean energy access on adult health and labour supply outcomes by exploiting a nationwide rollout of a clean cooking fuel program in Indonesia. We find that access to clean cooking fuel led to an improvement in women’s health and an increase in their work hours. We also find an increase in men’s work hours and in their propensity to have an additional job, primarily in those households where women accrued the largest program benefits.

由于無法獲得現(xiàn)代能源，婦女承擔(dān)了不成比例的健康和時間負(fù)擔(dān)。我們通過利用印度尼西亞在全國范圍內(nèi)推出清潔烹飪?nèi)剂嫌媱?，研究清潔能源獲取對成人健康和勞動力供應(yīng)結(jié)果的影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，獲得清潔烹飪?nèi)剂细纳屏藡D女的健康，增加了她們的工作時間。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，男性的工作時間和他們從事額外工作的傾向有所增加，主要是在婦女獲得最大項目福利的家庭中。

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12.Teaching Norms: Direct Evidence of Parental Transmission?

教學(xué)規(guī)范:父母傳播的直接證據(jù)

Thijs Brouwer,?Fabio Galeotti,?Marie Claire Villeval

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac074

We examine the educative role played by parents in social norm transmission. Using a field experiment, we study whether parents enforce and comply more with norms when their children are present compared to when they are not. We compare similar parents when or after they drop off or pick up their children at school. We find that parents accompanying children, in contrast to parents alone, are more likely to punish norm violators and to provide help to strangers when there is no violation. They also tend to substitute more direct punishment with withholding help as a means of indirect punishment.

我們研究了父母在社會規(guī)范傳播中所扮演的教育角色。通過實地實驗，我們研究了父母在孩子在場時是否比不在場時更遵守和執(zhí)行規(guī)范。我們比較相似的父母在接送孩子上學(xué)的時候或之后。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與獨自陪伴相比，陪伴子女的父母更有可能懲罰違反規(guī)范的人，并在沒有違反規(guī)范的情況下向陌生人提供幫助。他們還傾向于用扣留幫助來代替更直接的懲罰，作為一種間接的懲罰手段。

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13.The Long-Term Effects of Student Absence: Evidence from Sweden

學(xué)生缺勤的長期影響:來自瑞典的證據(jù)?

Sarah Cattan,?Daniel A Kamh?fer,?Martin Karlsson,?Therese Nilsson

https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac078

Despite the relatively uncontested importance of promoting school attendance in the policy arena, little evidence exists on the causal effect of school absence on long-run outcomes. We address this question by combining historical and administrative records for cohorts of Swedish individuals born in the 1930s. We find that elementary school absence significantly reduces contemporaneous academic performance, final educational attainment and labour income throughout the life cycle. The findings are consistent with a dynamic model of human capital formation, whereby absence causes small immediate learning losses, which cumulate to larger human capital losses over time and lead to worse labour market performance.

盡管提高入學(xué)率在政策領(lǐng)域的重要性相對沒有爭議，但很少有證據(jù)表明缺課對長期結(jié)果的因果影響。我們通過結(jié)合20世紀(jì)30年代出生的瑞典人的歷史和行政記錄來解決這個問題。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，小學(xué)缺勤顯著降低了整個生命周期的同期學(xué)業(yè)表現(xiàn)、最終教育成就和勞動收入。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)與人力資本形成的一個動態(tài)模型相一致，即缺勤會導(dǎo)致小的即時學(xué)習(xí)損失，隨著時間的推移，累積成更大的人力資本損失，并導(dǎo)致勞動力市場表現(xiàn)更差。

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