Riding high

蒸蒸日上

America’s expansion is now the longest on record

美國的經(jīng)濟擴張是有記錄以來最長的擴張

What could bring it to an end?

怎樣的事件才會使這種擴張收盤？

Jul 11th 2019

AROUND THE world investors, businesses and central bankers are grappling with a startling fact: at the end of July America’s economy will have been growing for 121 months, the longest run since records began in 1854, according to the NBER, a research body. History suggests there will be a recession soon. And plenty of people are gloomy. Bond markets have been sounding the alarm, as long-term interest rates sink below short-term ones, often a harbinger of a downturn. Manufacturing firms are wary; indices of business confidence are tumbling. Yet equity investors are still buoyant. The stockmarket is going gangbusters, rising by 19% so far this year. And in June America’s economy created a whopping 224,000 new jobs, more than twice as many as needed to keep up with the growth of the workforce. The result is a puzzle that matters a great deal. America’s economy accounts for a quarter of global output, so if it stumbles the world will, too. But if it proves able to extend the cycle a lot longer, it may be time to rewrite the rules for how all rich economies behave.

世界各地的投資者、企業(yè)和中央銀行家都在努力應(yīng)對一個令人吃驚的事實:根據(jù)NBER(一家研究機構(gòu))的數(shù)據(jù)，到7月底，美國經(jīng)濟將增長121個月，這是自1854年有記錄以來最長的增長。歷史表明，經(jīng)濟衰退即將來臨。很多人都很悲觀。債券市場一直在拉響警報，因為長期利率低于短期利率，而這往往是經(jīng)濟低迷的先兆。制造企業(yè)很謹(jǐn)慎;商業(yè)信心指數(shù)正在下跌。然而，股票投資者仍表現(xiàn)活躍。股票市場正在大放異彩，今年到目前為止上漲了19%。6月，美國經(jīng)濟創(chuàng)造了22.4萬個新工作崗位，是滿足勞動力增長需求的兩倍多。這一系列表現(xiàn)是一個非常重要的謎題。美國經(jīng)濟占全球產(chǎn)出的四分之一，因此，如果它遭遇挫折，世界也會遭殃。但如果事實證明它能夠?qū)⒅芷谘娱L得更長，或許是時候改寫所有富裕經(jīng)濟體的行為規(guī)則了。

詞匯

Harbinger/ ?先驅(qū)；前兆

Wary/ ?謹(jǐn)慎的；機警的

Buoyant/輕快的；有浮力的；上漲的

Gangbuster/勢如破竹

Whopping/巨大的；天大的

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The conflicting signals reflect an unusually sluggish and stretched expansion. Some of that is to be expected after the worst financial crisis in 80 years, but as our briefing explains, it is also owing to deeper changes in America’s $21trn economy. Growth is slow but more stable as activity has shifted to services and intangible assets. Thanks to new regulations and the recent memory of the bust, there are few signs of wild mortgage lending, over-investment or reckless financial firms. Inflation is remarkably subdued. These forces mean that a placid expansion can continue well beyond historical norms, but also suggest that the way it will eventually end will be different. Recessions used to be triggered by housing bubbles, price surges or industrial busts. Now you should worry about globally interconnected firms, a financial system addicted to cheap money and a political system that is toying with extreme policies because living standards are not rising fast enough.

這些相互矛盾的信號反映出經(jīng)濟增長異常緩慢和乏力。在經(jīng)歷了80年來最嚴(yán)重的金融危機之后，其中一些是可以預(yù)見的，但正如我們的簡報所解釋的，這也要歸因于美國21萬億美元經(jīng)濟的更深層次的變化。隨著經(jīng)濟活動轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)業(yè)和無形資產(chǎn)，增長雖然緩慢，但更為穩(wěn)定。由于新法規(guī)的出臺以及近期對經(jīng)濟蕭條的記憶，幾乎沒有跡象表明瘋狂的抵押貸款、過度投資或魯莽的金融公司。通貨膨脹明顯受到抑制。這些力量意味著，平靜的擴張可以遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出歷史規(guī)范，但也表明，它最終的結(jié)局將是不同的。過去，經(jīng)濟衰退是由房地產(chǎn)泡沫、價格飆升或工業(yè)蕭條引發(fā)的?，F(xiàn)在，你應(yīng)該擔(dān)心的是全球相互關(guān)聯(lián)的公司，沉迷于廉價資金的金融體系，以及因為生活水平上升不夠快而玩弄極端政策的政治體系。

詞匯

Sluggish/蕭條的；遲鈍的；

Intangible/無形的，觸摸不到的；難以理解的

Subdue/抑制，克制

Placid/平靜的；溫和的

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Average GDP growth during this expansion has been a mere 2.3%, much lower than the 3.6% that was seen in America’s three previous expansions. That reflects some deep malaises. The workforce is ageing. Big firms hoard profits and invest less. Productivity growth has been slow. Robert Gordon, an economist, worries that America’s genius for innovation is flagging. Emojis and bitcoins are no substitute for breakthroughs such as jet engines or the internet.

在這次經(jīng)濟擴張中，平均GDP增長率僅為2.3%，遠(yuǎn)低于美國前三次經(jīng)濟擴張中3.6%的增長率。這反映出一些深層次的弊病。勞動力正在老化。大公司囤積利潤，減少投資。生產(chǎn)率增長緩慢。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家羅伯特?戈登擔(dān)心美國的創(chuàng)新天賦正在衰退。表情符號和比特幣無法取代飛機引擎或互聯(lián)網(wǎng)等突破性進展。

詞匯

Malaise/萎靡；不適

Hoard/積斂；儲存

That is the bad news. The good news is that the economy may be less volatile. A third of America’s 20th-century recessions were caused by industrial slumps or oil-price shocks, according to Goldman Sachs. Today manufacturing is just 11% of GDP and each dollar of output requires a quarter less energy than in 1999. Services have become even more vital, at 70% of output. Instead of fickle factories and Florida condos, investment has shifted to intellectual property, which now accounts for more than a quarter of the total. After the searing experience of 2008, the value of the housing stock is 143% of GDP, well below the peak of 188%. Banks are rammed full of capital.

這是個壞消息。好消息是，經(jīng)濟可能不會那么動蕩。據(jù)高盛稱，美國20世紀(jì)三分之一的經(jīng)濟衰退是由工業(yè)衰退或油價沖擊造成的。今天的制造業(yè)僅占GDP的11%，每一美元的產(chǎn)出所需要的能源比1999年減少了四分之一。服務(wù)業(yè)變得更加重要，占產(chǎn)出的70%。投資已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到知識產(chǎn)權(quán)領(lǐng)域，而不是變化無常的工廠和佛羅里達(dá)州的公寓，目前知識產(chǎn)權(quán)占總投資的四分之一以上。在經(jīng)歷了2008年的慘痛經(jīng)歷后，住房存量占GDP的143%，遠(yuǎn)低于188%的峰值。銀行堆積著資本。

詞匯

Volatile/不穩(wěn)定的；反復(fù)無常的

Fickle/ ?浮躁的；易變的；變幻無常的

Condo/公寓

Rammed/沖壓成的，搗打成的；擠滿了人的

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Most remarkable of all is very low inflation, which has averaged 1.6% over the course of the expansion. In many past downturns the jobs market overheated, causing inflation and leading the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes. Today the dynamics are different. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7%, close to the lowest in half a century, but wage growth is only a tepid 3%. Workers have less bargaining power in a globalised economy. The Fed’s credibility helps, too—most people believe that it can keep long-run inflation at about 2%. Given that racing prices are less of a worry and that it lacks the ammunition to deal with a serious downturn, the Fed is being more active at signalling that it will ease policy when growth dips. This week the Fed signalled it would soon nudge rates down from today’s 2.25-2.5%, to keep growth going.

最引人注目的是極低的通貨膨脹率，在經(jīng)濟擴張的過程中平均只有1.6%。在過去的許多衰退中，就業(yè)市場過熱，導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹，導(dǎo)致美聯(lián)儲踩剎車。今天的情況有所不同。失業(yè)率已降至3.7%，接近半個世紀(jì)以來的最低水平，但工資增幅僅為3%。在全球化的經(jīng)濟中，工人的議價能力更弱。美聯(lián)儲的信譽也有幫助，大多數(shù)人相信它可以將長期通脹率保持在2%左右?？紤]到價格上漲不那么令人擔(dān)憂，而且美聯(lián)儲缺乏應(yīng)對嚴(yán)重衰退的“彈藥”，美聯(lián)儲正更加積極地發(fā)出信號，表明當(dāng)經(jīng)濟增長放緩時，它將放松政策。本周，美聯(lián)儲暗示將很快將利率從目前的2.25-2.5%小幅下調(diào)，以保持經(jīng)濟增長。

詞匯

Tepid/ ?微溫的，溫?zé)岬?/p>

Ammunition/彈藥；軍火

All this supports the idea that the familiar triggers for recession are still absent and that the moderately good times can roll on for years yet. The trouble with this logic is that, just as the economy has changed, so have the risks. Inevitably it is hard to identify exactly what might go wrong, but three new kinds of problems loom large.

這些現(xiàn)象和措施都支持這樣一種觀點，即人們熟悉的引發(fā)衰退的誘因仍然不存在，適度的繁榮時期還可能持續(xù)數(shù)年。這種邏輯的問題在于，隨著經(jīng)濟的變化，風(fēng)險也在變化。不可避免地，我們很難確定到底是什么出了問題，但有三種新的問題凸顯出來。

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First, America’s glossy corporate champions have unfamiliar vulnerabilities. Although fewer make physical goods, most rely on global production chains that are being shaken by the trade war. This is depressing investment and could yet produce a shock—imagine if Apple was cut off from its factories in China. Tech firms, meanwhile, now account for a third of all investment by listed firms, including intellectual property. Other businesses outsource their need for IT services to a few giants. One of them, Alphabet, spent $45bn in the past year, five times more than Ford. But 85% of its sales come from advertising, which has been cyclical in the past. It and other tech firms also face a regulatory storm.

首先，美國光鮮亮麗的企業(yè)冠軍們有著不為人知的弱點。雖然生產(chǎn)實物產(chǎn)品的企業(yè)較少，但大多數(shù)都依賴于受到貿(mào)/易/戰(zhàn)沖擊的全球生產(chǎn)鏈。這是一項令人沮喪的投資，但也可能產(chǎn)生令人震驚的后果——想象一下，如果蘋果被切斷在中國的工廠。與此同時，包括知識產(chǎn)權(quán)在內(nèi)，科技公司目前占上市公司總投資的三分之一。其他企業(yè)將他們對IT服務(wù)的需求外包給一些巨頭。其中之一Alphabet在過去一年的支出為450億美元，是福特的5倍。但其85%的銷售額來自廣告，這在過去是周期性的。It和其他科技公司也面臨著監(jiān)管風(fēng)暴。

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The second risk is financial. Although house prices and the banks have been tamed, total private debts remain high by historical standards, at 250% of GDP. An edifice of asset prices and borrowing rests on the assumption of permanently low and stable interest rates, making it more fragile than it looks. If rates rise there will be distress among some firms, and trouble in debt markets—there was a sell-off in late 2018. If, by contrast, the Fed has to cut rates to near zero for a prolonged period to sustain growth, it could weaken the banks, as Europe has found.

第二個風(fēng)險是金融方面的。盡管房價和銀行都得到了控制，但以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，私人債務(wù)總額仍然很高，達(dá)到GDP的250%。資產(chǎn)價格和借貸的大廈建立在長期低利率和穩(wěn)定利率的假設(shè)之上，這使得它比看上去更加脆弱。如果利率上升，一些公司將會陷入困境，債務(wù)市場也會陷入困境——2018年末出現(xiàn)了拋售。相比之下，如果美聯(lián)儲不得不在較長時期內(nèi)將利率降至接近于零的水平以維持經(jīng)濟增長，就會削弱銀行的實力，正如歐洲所發(fā)現(xiàn)的那樣。

詞匯

Edifice/大廈；大建筑物

A recession made in Washington?

華盛頓會是制造衰退的罪魁禍?zhǔn)讍?

The last danger is politics. As the economy has trodden a narrow path, the boundaries of economic policy have been blown wide apart, partly out of frustration at a decade of sluggish wages. President Donald Trump has tried to gin up growth, by cutting taxes and attacking the Fed. Most Democrats are keen to let rip on government spending. More extreme policies hover in the wings. On the left, modern monetary theory (a kind of money printing) and massive state intervention are popular. One of Mr Trump’s new nominees to the Fed board supports a gold standard. The greatest threat to America’s long and placid expansion is that a new era of wild policy may be just beginning.

最后一個危險是政治。隨著經(jīng)濟走上了一條狹窄的道路，經(jīng)濟政策的界線被炸得四分五裂，部分原因是對10年來工資低迷感到沮喪。美國總統(tǒng)唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)試圖通過減稅和攻擊美聯(lián)儲來刺激經(jīng)濟增長。多數(shù)民主黨人熱衷于大肆揮霍政府開支。更極端的政策正在醞釀之中。在左翼，現(xiàn)代貨幣理論(一種關(guān)于貨幣印刷的理論)和大規(guī)模的國家干預(yù)很受歡迎。特朗普提名的美聯(lián)儲新成員之一支持金本位。美國長期而平穩(wěn)的擴張所面臨的最大威脅是，一個瘋狂政策的新時代可能才剛剛開始。

詞匯

Trodden——tread?/踩，踐踏；行走

gin up/激起

hover/盤旋，翱翔；徘徊

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